Prognostication

While it may be a bit early to prognosticate on the next election, given that it’s only been a half-year since the last one, there’s an overall trend that is extremely interesting, and if the Democrats ever want to buck that trend, we’re going to need to see more out of them than what we’re seeing now and what we’ve seen before.
For now, it seems, the Dems are content to sit back and let the Republicans shoot themselves in the collective foot, which is what happens when you love guns and you’re a dumbshit. Immediately following the last two successful Republican elections (’04, when Bush won re-election, and last year, when they took several Senate seats and took over en masse in the house), they haven’t been shy about their ambitions: cut Social Security (Bush), and cut Medicare (Boehner). And in the elections immediately following Bush’s blunder, they were horrified: they lost the House and the Senate in ’06, and Democrats increased their margins in 2008, adding the presidency as well.
My guess is the same will happen next year, assuming the world doesn’t end before that time. None of the Republican candidates can seriously challenge Obama for the presidency, and unless the voters suddenly forget their spurious attacks on unions, teachers and other public employees, women, and Medicare immediately following their victory in 2010, the prospects for the Elephants in 2012 don’t look good.
The real question is whether or not the Democrats will actually take advantage of it. They certainly didn’t after ’08, not like they should have anyway, although that was a tough situation, given the post-racist ripple that ran through the South and retirement homes across the U.S. after Obama’s election, not to mention the massive campaign of misinformation that came spewing out of the right wing noise machine. In any case, the past is the past, and in 2012 the Democrats will have officially run out of excuses. They should have majorities in both houses (if they have even mediocre campaign management), the presidency, and a supportive American public who will be in desperate need of real solutions.
In other words: they need to get shit done. That means taking actions on several key issues:
1) They need to find money for a great deal of investment in this nation’s infrastructure, as well as our system of education. Both are basically rotting into oblivion as it stands now. A significant investment in our roads, bridges, rail, and the electric grid would make our country more efficient and in the long run would save energy and money, not to mention the boost to the economy that would follow in the form of construction contracts and jobs.
2) They need to find a permanent fix for Medicare and Social Security. That might mean raising taxes on the rich, cutting benefits, or both, but if they can successfully tackle this problem, the future salience and financial security of our nation would be solved, and the Republicans, who already go forward with the equivalent of a rope bridge of a platform, would be totally fucked.
3) They need to simplify the tax code. Less deductions with a lower rate—especially for corporations. This combined with a higher tax rate (much higher, really) on the rich--there's no reason those making more than 1 million a year shouldn't be taxed at a 45 or 50% marginal rate (for every dollar they make after that million)--would really go a long way toward fixing our finances. And while they’re at it, they need to end the subsidies to farming and big oil. These industries do not need taxpayer money and are more than profitable enough to succeed in the marketplace on their own.
4) They need to cut military spending by at least a third. It is a massively bloated portion of government spending, and in the end it is simply untenable to saddle the American taxpayer with such a massive and unnecessary burden.
5) Pass some sort of election campaign finance reform that bypasses the Supreme Court’s horrible ruling in the Citizen’s United case. Much of the reason that nothing gets done in government is that there is way too much money given to both parties to maintain the status quo, and at some point, without change, it is going to cripple this nation irreparably. While they’re at it, they need to end the revolving door that exists between boards of directors, lobbying, and members of Congress and other government officials. The plain fact is that our political system is corrupt, and it is absolutely killing the average American.

In conclusion, though I am hopeful about the prospects for the Democrats in the next election, I’m skeptical about whether a win is actually going to translate to change. It doesn’t seem much has been done at all to help the average person recently by either party, and if it continues I won’t be prognosticating: I’ll be emmigrating.